Lebenslauf:

03.2023-09.2023 Elternzeit (mit Teilzeitanstellung als Juniorprofessor)

07.2021-10.2021 Elternzeit (mit Teilzeitanstellung als Juniorprofessor)

seit 07.2020 Berufenes Mitglied der Jungen Akademie an der Berlin-Brandenburgischen Akademie der Wissenschaften (BBAW) und der Nationalen Akademie der Wissenschaften Leopoldina

seit 02.2017 Juniorprofessor für Umweltökonomik, insb. Ökonomik erneuerbarer Energien, Universität Duisburg-Essen (positiv zwischenevaluiert am 11.2019)

04.2019-09.2019 Elternzeit (mit Teilzeitanstellung als Juniorprofessor)

01.2019-04.2019 Forschungsaufenthalt im Programm 'The Mathematics for Energy Systems', Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge,

09.2012-01.2017 Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter, Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Europa-Universität Viadrina, Frankfurt (Oder)

07.2016-12.2016 Academic Visitor am Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (OCIAM), University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

09.2012-06.2016 Promotion in Wirtschaftswissenschaften an der Europa-Universität Viadrina, Frankfurt (Oder)

06.2015-09.2015 DAAD-Forschungsaufenthalt am European Centre for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics (ECARES) der Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brüssel, Belgien

10.2008-02.2013 Diplom in Mathematik (Diplommathematiker), Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden

09.2011-08.2012 M.Sc. in Statistics, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland

10.2008-02.2013 Diplom Mathematik, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden09.2011-08.2012M.Sc. in Statistics, University College Dublin, Dublin, Irland

Publikationen:

• Marcjasz, Grzegorz; Narajewski, Michał; Weron, Rafał; Ziel, Florian: Distributional neural networks for electricity price forecasting. In: Energy Economics (2023). BIB DownloadDetails
• Sgarlato, Raffaele; Ziel, Florian: The Role of Weather Predictions in Electricity Price Forecasting Beyond the Day-Ahead Horizon. In: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Jg. 38 (2023) Nr. 3, S. 2500-2511. doi:10.1109/TPWRS.2022.3180119BIB DownloadDetails
• Hirsch, Simon; Ziel, Florian: Simulation-based Forecasting for Intraday Power Markets: Modelling Fundamental Drivers for Location, Shape and Scale of the Price Distribution. In: The Energy Journal (2023). BIB DownloadDetails
• Berrisch, Jonathan; Narajewski, Michal; Ziel, Florian: High-resolution peak demand estimation using generalized additive models and deep neural networks. In: Energy and AI, Jg. 13 (2023), S. 100236. VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Berrisch, Jonathan; Pappert, Sven; Ziel, Florian; Arsova, Antonia: Modeling volatility and dependence of European carbon and energy prices. In: Finance Research Letters, Jg. 52 (2023), S. 103503. doi:10.1016/j.frl.2022.103503VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Berrisch, Jonathan; Ziel, Florian: Multivariate Probabilistic CRPS Learning with an Application to Day-Ahead Electricity Prices. In: arXiv preprint arXiv:2303.10019 (2023). BIB DownloadDetails
• Ghelasi, Paul; Ziel, Florian: Hierarchical forecasting for aggregated curves with an application to day-ahead electricity price auctions. In: International Journal of Forecasting (2022). doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.11.004BIB DownloadDetails
• Finnah, Benedikt; Gönsch, Jochen; Ziel, Florian: Integrated day-ahead and intraday self-schedule bidding for energy storage systems using approximate dynamic programming. In: European Journal of Operations Research, Jg. 301 (2022) Nr. 2, S. 726-746. BIB DownloadDetails
• Narajewski, Michal; Ziel, Florian: Optimal bidding in hourly and quarter-hourly electricity price auctions: Trading large volumes of power with market impact and transaction costs. In: Energy Economics, Jg. 110 (2022). doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105974BIB DownloadDetails
• Berrisch, Jonathan; Ziel, Florian: CRPS Learning. In: Journal of Econometrics (forthcoming) (2021). doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.11.008VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Petropoulos, Fotios; Apiletti, Daniele; Assimakopoulos, Vassilios; Babai, Mohamed Zied; Barrow, Devon K.; Taieb, Souhaib Ben; Bergmeir, Christoph; . . .; Winkler, Robert L.; Yusupova, Alisa; Ziel, Florian: Forecasting: theory and practice. In: International Journal of Forecasting (2021). BIB DownloadDetails
• Ziel, Florian: M5 Competition Uncertainty: Overdispersion, distributional forecasting, GAMLSS and beyond.. In: International Journal of Forecasting (2021). doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.09.008BIB DownloadDetails
• Gonzalez, Paula; Brayshaw, David; Ziel, Florian: A new approach to subseasonal multi-model forecasting: Online prediction with expert advice.. In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2021). doi:10.1002/qj.4177BIB DownloadDetails
• Rostami-Tabar, Bahman; Ziel, Florian: Anticipating special events in Emergency Department forecasting. In: International Journal of Forecasting (2021). doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.01.001VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Narajewski, Michal; Kley-Holsteg, Jens; Ziel, Florian: tsrobprep – an R package for robust preprocessing of time series data.. In: SoftwareX, Jg. 16 (2021). doi:10.1016/j.softx.2021.100809BIB DownloadDetails
• Christopher Kath, Florian Ziel: Conformal Prediction Interval Estimations with an Application to Day-Ahead and Intraday Power Markets. In: International Journal of Forecasting, Jg. 37 (2021) Nr. 2, S. 777-799. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.09.006VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Furtwängler, Christian; Weber, Christoph; Ziel, Florian: Uncertainties in Energy and Electricity Markets: An Introduction. In: Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy (2021). BIB DownloadDetails
• Kulakov, Sergei; Ziel, Florian: The impact of renewable energy forecasts on intraday electricity prices. In: Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy (2021). doi:10.5547/2160-5890.10.1.skulVolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Ziel, Florian: The energy distance for ensemble and scenario reduction. In: Philosophical Transactions A, Jg. 379 (2021) Nr. 2202. doi:10.1098/rsta.2019.0431VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Narajewski, Michal; Ziel, Florian: Ensemble Forecasting for Intraday Electricity Prices: Simulating Trajectories. In: Applied Energy (2020). doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115801VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Kley-Holsteg, Jens; Ziel, Florian: Probabilistic Multi-Step-Ahead Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting with Lasso. In: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Jg. 146 (2020) Nr. 10. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001268VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Muniain, Peru; Ziel, Florian: Probabilistic forecasting in day-ahead electricity markets: Simulating peak and off-peak prices. In: International Journal of Forecasting, Jg. 36 (2020) Nr. 4, S. 1193-1210. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.11.006VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Narajewski, Michal; Ziel, Florian: Changes in Electricity Demand Pattern in Europe Due to COVID-19 Shutdowns. In: IAEE Energy Forum (2020), S. 44-47. PDFVolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Ziel, Florian: Load Nowcasting: Predicting Actuals with Limited Data. In: Energies, Jg. 13 (2020) Nr. 6. doi:10.3390/en13061443PDFVolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Narajewski, Michal; Ziel, Florian: Econometric modelling and forecasting of intraday electricity prices. In: Journal of Commodity Markets, Jg. 19 (2020) Nr. 4. doi:10.1016/j.jcomm.2019.100107PDFVolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Narajewski, Michal; Ziel, Florian: Estimation and Simulation of the Transaction Arrival Process in Intraday Electricity Markets. In: Energies, Jg. 12 (2019) Nr. 23. doi:10.3390/en12234518PDFVolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Florian Ziel, Kevin Berk: Multivariate Forecasting Evaluation: On Sensitive and Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, 2019. VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Sergei Kulakov, Florian Ziel: Determining the Demand Elasticity in a Wholesale Electricity Market. VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Christopher Kath, Florian Ziel: The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts. In: Energy Economics, Jg. 76 (2018), S. 411-423. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2018.10.005VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Florian Ziel, Rick Steinert: Probabilistic mid- and long-term electricity price forecasting. In: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Jg. 94 (2018), S. 251-266. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.05.038VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Ziel, Florian: Quantile Regression for Qualifying Match of GEFCom2017 Probabilistic Load Forecasting. In: International Journal of Forecasting (2018). doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.07.004BIB DownloadDetails
• Rick Steinert, Florian Ziel: Short-to Mid-term Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Using Futures. In: The Energy Journal (2018). doi:10.5547/01956574.40.1.rsteBIB DownloadDetails
• Florian Ziel, Rafal Weron: Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks. In: Energy Economics, Jg. 70 (2018), S. 396-420. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2017.12.016VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Uniejewski, Bartosz; Weron, Rafal; Ziel, Florian: Variance Stabilizing Transformations for Electricity Spot Price Forecasting. In: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Jg. 99 (2017) Nr. 1. doi:10.1109/TPWRS.2017.2734563VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Yunusov, Timur; Haben, Stephen; Lee, Tamsin; Ziel, Florian; Holderbaum, William; Potter, Ben: Evaluating the effectiveness of storage control in reducing peak demand on low voltage feeders. In: 24th International Conference & Exhibition on Electricity Distribution (CIRED). IET, 2017. doi:10.1049/oap-cired.2017.0626BIB DownloadDetails
• Ziel, Florian: Modeling the impact of wind and solar power forecasting errors on intraday electricity prices. In: 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM 2017). IEEE, 2017. doi:10.1109/EEM.2017.7981900VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Ziel, Florian: Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices Using Lasso: On Capturing the Autoregressive Intraday Structure. In: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Jg. 31 (2016) Nr. 6, S. 4977-4987. doi:10.1109/TPWRS.2016.2521545VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Florian Ziel, Rick Steinert: Electricity price forecasting using sale and purchase curves: The X-Model. In: Energy Economics, Jg. 59 (2016), S. 435-454. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.008VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Ziel, Florian; Croonenbroeck, Carsten; Ambach, Daniel: Forecasting wind power - Modeling periodic and non-linear effects under conditional heteroscedasticity. In: Applied Energy, Jg. 177 (2016), S. 285-297. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.05.111VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Ziel, Florian: Iteratively reweighted adaptive lasso for conditional heteroscedastic time series with applications to AR-ARCH type processes. In: Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Jg. 100 (2016), S. 773-793. doi:10.1016/j.csda.2015.11.016VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Florian Ziel, Bidong Liu: Lasso estimation for GEFCom2014 probabilistic electric load forecasting. In: International Journal of Forecasting, Jg. 32 (2016) Nr. 3, S. 1029-1037. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.01.001VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Ziel, Florian: Modelling and forecasting electricity load using lasso methods. In: Modern Electric Power Systems (MEPS), 2015. IEEE, 2016, S. 1-6. doi: 10.1109/MEPS.2015.7477217VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Ziel, Florian; Steinert, Rick; Husmann, Sven: Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets. In: Energy Economics, Jg. 51 (2015), S. 430-444. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.08.005VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Ziel, Florian: Quasi-maximum Likelihood Estimation of Periodic Autoregressive, Conditionally Heteroscedastic Time Series. In: Steland, A.; Rafajłowicz, E.; Szajowski, K. (Hrsg.): Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics. Springer, 2015, S. 207-214. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-13881-7_23VolltextBIB DownloadDetails
• Ziel, Florian; Steinert, Rick; Husmann, Sven: Efficient modeling and forecasting of electricity spot prices. In: Energy Economics, Jg. 47 (2015), S. 98-111. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2014.10.012VolltextBIB DownloadDetails

Vorträge:

• Ziel, Florian: Electricity Price Forecasting: Data Science Meets Fundamental Models, 6th Energy Finance Italia, 08.02.2023, Milan, Italy. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Multivariate CRPS Learning, 42th International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF2022), 13.07.2022, Oxford, UK. Details
• Ziel, Florian: CRPS Learning, RuhrMetrics Seminar 2022, 24.06.2022, Bochum, Germany. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Optimal Probabilistic Forecast Combination Using CRPS Learning, International Conference on Computational Finance (ICCF) 2022, 06.06.2022, Wuppertal, Germany. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Data Science Models Meet Fundamental Models: Modern Electricity Price Forecasting Approaches , Fundamental and Stochastic Models in Energy Systems (digital), 01.05.2022, Karlsruhe/Cottbus, Germany. Details
• Ziel, Florian: CRPS Learning, Energy Finance Seminar, 18.04.2022, Stolberg(Harz), Germany. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Western Power Distribution Data Challenge on Estimating Electric Vehicle Charger Demand, WPD Challenge #2 - Winner Presentation (digital), 15.03.2022, Bristol, UK. Details
• Ziel, Florian: The Impact of Renewable Energy Forecasts on Intraday Electricity Prices, IAEE Webinar (digital), 01.03.2022, New York, US. Details
• Ziel, Florian: High Resolution Peak Demand Estimation Challenge, WPD Challenge #1 - Winner Presentation (digital), 21.01.2022, Bristol, UK. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Optimal bidding on hourly and quarter-hourly day-ahead electricity price auctions: trading large volumes of power with market impact and transaction costs, EPF Seminar 2021 - Virtual Seminar, 06.05.2021, Wroclaw, Poland. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Optimal online aggregation and bias reduction: Combining electricity price forecasts across calibration windows, 40th International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF2020) - Virtual Conference, 26.10.2020, Rio, Brasil. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Integrated day-ahead and intraday self-schedule bidding for energy storages using approximate dynamic programming, Digital GOR Workshop, 07.10.2020, Bochum, Germany. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Forecasting Combination in Energy Forecasting, Strommarkttreffen - Machine Learning, 10.04.2020, Berlin, Germany (canceled due to COVID19). Details
• Ziel, Florian: Electricity Load Nowcasting, Energy Finance Seminar, 01.04.2020, Stolberg(Harz), Germany (canceled due to COVID19). Details
• Ziel, Florian: Hybrid methods for short-term electricity price forecasting, Vattenfall - Workshop on short term price forecasting, 25.03.2020, Hamburg, Germany (canceled due to COVID19). Details
• Ziel, Florian: Integrated day-ahead and intraday self-schedule bidding for energy storages using approximate dynamic program- ming, GOR Workshop, 11.03.2020, Bochum, Germany (canceled due to COVID19). Details
• Ziel, Florian: Estimation and simulation of the transaction arrival process in intraday electricity markets, Energy Finance Christmas Workshop 2019, 12.12.2019, Dublin, Ireland. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Stochastic/Statistical Modelling of Electricity Prices, Hybrid Modelling of Energy Systems, 14.11.2019, Karlsruhe, Germany. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Combined Portfolio Rules under Parameter Uncertainty, Energy Finance Seminar, 18.04.2019, Stolberg(Harz), Germany. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Load and price forecasting, TenneT, 10.04.2019, Bayreuth, Germany. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Determining the Demand Elasticity in a Wholesale Electricity Market, Finance & Stochastics Research Seminar, 20.03.2019, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Multivariate Forecasting Evaluation: On Sensitive and Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Data and Analytics for Short-Term Operations, 14.02.2019, Cambridge, UK. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Determining the Demand Elasticity in a Wholesale Electricity Market, Energy Finance Christmas Workshop 2018, 12.12.2018, Bozen/Bolzano, Italy. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Probabilistic load forecasting, Strommarkttreffen, 24.08.2018, Berlin. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Marginal-Copula-Scores for Multivariate Forecasting Evaluation, Stochastisches Kolloquium, 21.06.2018, Siegen, Germany. Details
• Ziel, Florian: The impact of renewable energy forecasts on intra-day electricity prices, Strommarkttreffen, 01.06.2018, Berlin. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Conformal Prediction Interval Estimations with an Application to Day-Ahead and Intraday Power Markets, Computational Management Science (CMS 2018), 30.05.2018, Trondheim, Norway. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Modeling of the non-linear impact of renewable energy forecasts on intra-day electricity prices, Energy Finance Seminar, 18.04.2018, Stolberg (Harz). Details
• Ziel, Florian: Modeling of the non-linear impact of renewable energy forecasts on intra-day electricity prices, Workshop on forecasting for renewable energy production, 02.02.2018, EDF, Paris, France. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Prognosen in Energiemärkten, Euroforum, 09.01.2018, Düsseldorf. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Short- to Mid-term Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Using Futures., CMStatistics 2017: Stochastic modelling of energy markets, 16.12.2017, London, UK. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Short- to Mid-term Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Using Futures., Energy Finance Christmas Workshop 2017, 14.12.2017, Cracow, Poland. Details
• Ziel, Florian: The Energy Transition in Germany: What we can learn from the past for the future., German-Arab Knowledge Transfer Colloquium on Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Energy Nexus, 28.11.2017, Duisburg. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Probabilistic Mid- and Long-Term Electricity Price Forecasting: A supply and demand curves based approach, 6th International Ruhr Energy Conference 2018 (INREC 2018), 01.09.2017, Essen. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Multi- vs. univariate modeling frameworks, ISF 2017, 37th International Symposium on Forecasting , 27.06.2017, Cairns, Australia. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Public Holidays in Energy Forecasting, ISAE, International Symposium on Energy Analytics, 22.06.2017, Cairns, Australia. Details
• Ziel, Florian: GEFCom2017, International Symposium on Energy Analytics, 22.06.2017, Cairns, Australia. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Electricity price forecasting using sale and purchase curves: The X-Model, IAEE 2017 40th Annual IAEE International Conference, 19.06.2017, Singapore. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Electricity Price Forecasting Using Supply and Demand Curves, Economics Colloquium, RUB, 14.06.2017, Bochum. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Modeling the impact of wind and solar power forecasting errors on intraday electricity prices, EEM2017 - 14 th International Conference on European Energy Market, 08.06.2017, Dresden. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Probabilistic Mid- and Long-Term Electricity Price Forecasting: A supply and demand curves based approach, Energy Finance Seminar, 19.04.2017, Stolberg (Harz). Details
• Ziel, Florian: Einführung in das Verständnis von Zeitreihen, Mathematik-Wettbewerb 12.Klasse, 30.03.2017, C.F.Gauß-Gymnasium Frankfurt(Oder). Details
• Ziel, Florian: Prognose von Strompreisen, IUTA, 23.03.2017, IUTA Duisburg. Details
• Ziel, Florian: On Proper Forecast Evaluation Based on the Energy Score and the Diebold-Mariano Test, S3-Seminar (Science meets Social Science), 16.03.2017, Wrolaw University of Technology. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Investigation of Short Term Load Forecasts of Low Voltage Level Substation Feeders and the Effects of Weather, 4th LV workshop: Demand analytics and control for networks support, 01.03.2017, Reading, UK. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Modelling and Forecasting of Electricity Load, 13th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications, 24.02.2017, HU Berlin. Details
• Ziel, Florian: Electricity Price Forecasting using Sale and Purchase Curves: The X- Model, Strommarkttreffen - Thema: Strompreismodellierung, 10.02.2017, Innogy, Berlin. Details