Electricity price forecasting
Here you observe probabilistic real-time electricity price forecasts of the German/Austrian EPEX day-ahead electricity price (spot price). The forecasting methodology is based on the econometric modeling of supply and demand curves (or sale and purchase curves). Here we incorporate information like past market bids and wind and solar power forecasts using high-dimensional statistics.
The complete modeling method is explained in the article Electricity price forecasting using sale and purchase curves: The X-Model which is published in Energy Economics. The electricity price such as supply and demand curves (or sale and purchase curves) forecasts and evaluated data are updated regularly.
At the moment the tool does not update reguarly because of changes in the data base system. (EEX transparency does not provide the curve data anymore, we are currently negotiating with EPEX to receive the data.)
Note on the accuracy of the forecasts:
We do not buy wind and solar power forecasts before the daily auction at 12:00 CE(S)T for the day of interest. The forecasting accuracy may be affected.
Note on the intersection of the curves:
In the visualisation the intersection of the median supply and demand curves such as the median electricity price are highlighted. Please note in general they do not coincide.